Wednesday, May 5, 2010

Predicting the market is a waste of time; and here's why.

I happen to read this today in one of the expert bloggers called Mr.Illango and really glad to re-post here.So that, the content will reach to as many people as we can.

Market is market and it will do what it has to do. It does not care about anyone.. Most of the people predicting about the market are only engaged in educated guesses.
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I can also indulge in guesswork but the fact is - I don't "know" what markets are going to do in the future. Some may ask, How can you be in this business and not know what markets are going to do?
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Well, trust me trading business has nothing to do with prediction. It is more a skill on how to navigate markets than knowing the map of the market.
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Plan Actions and Visualize Scenarios:
Let me start with a great quote from George Soros - The financial markets generally are unpredictable. So that one has to have different scenarios. The idea that you can actually predict what's going to happen contradicts my way of looking at the market.
The action approach should be - Don't think about what the market's going to do; you have absolutely no control over that. Instead, think about what you're going to do if market does anything what you have envisaged or visualized.
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What every traders needs to understand?
1.. There is a huge difference between trading correctly and making an accurate market prediction.
2.. In the final analysis, predicting the market is not what's important. What is important is using sound trading practices.
3.. And if sound trading habits are all that is important, there is no reason to try to predict the markets in the first place.
4.. It is the discipline that keeps one in the market for long timeand not the forecast ability.

When one predicts
- one searches for that market behavior; and if market starts behaving otherwise
- one gets angry and start fighting the market.
That's why - one should have an open mindset towards market behavior and not trapped in prism of one's prediction.
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There is a famous saying which also sums up the attitude one should have towards the market - I have no idea what the market will do, but that is ok and I will play whatever comes my way.

Courtesy: Deepak Singh of "State of the Market" blog
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